As of 11:37AM Nov. 4, day afterAmerica’s big day, voting for president and all, the New York Times gives Biden 227 electoral votes, Trump 213. Biden up 14 votes. The Washington Post a minute later gave Biden and advantage 224 to 118. Biden up 106 votes. Either way, Biden is less than 50 votes away from 270 — a magic majority to win in our quirky, current system.
Here is my take on why presidential demeanor is a trait voters value highly, and President Trump has shown no such demeanor, especially now he is threatening to challenge a final tally in the court system. With results pouring in last night, Florida (FL) went red, a key win for Trump, while Pennsylvania and Michigan as well as Wisconsin were influential factors for how the candidates fared so far. According to the Times, the first is leaning Republican, while the latter two are leaning Democrat.
With the addition of Sun Belt states such as Arizona (AZ) — a state with a large swing Latino population, such as a diverse ex-pat community among South and Central Americans, for instance Cubans in Miami or Columbia’s exiles in FL — AZ is one of the three to seem like a stronger chance to gain its 11 electoral votes.
But back to personality. JFK was calm and relaxed even during a near-nuclear crisis in 1962. FDR convinced people underneath him in 1936 on for four terms that he listened to opposing, and the best, opinions, making him a compassionate listener. Trump is like neither of these, at best he is controversial, degrading towards minority groups, and offensive to a large portion of the population (this last expected when strong political decisions are at stake).
Some think only an elite group are eligible to take over the top-office, and I would agree. I would base this on candidates running campaigns that propose strategies towards where median voters fall on certain issues. Most of all, economic issues matter more than any other factor, such as foreign policy, when polls take into consideration likely voters’ intentions.
Now that we are out to the stage where poll aggregators like FiveThirtyEight by Nate Silver predict a more likelihood of one of many “paths to 270,” coming true. While we could legally be required to wait until December for final vote tally, with the system stressed this anomalous election year, Trump added, as usual, to divisive rhetoric by going on cable television to say he will be taking the outcome about counting early votes marked late and other exceptions from normal, in-person voting to court.
If he follows through on his promise, not only is a bias to favor Democrats in polls, which could explain the Times’ poll analysis larger gap in electoral votes for Biden, at further risk of making pre-Election Day forecasts off, despite predicting national votes outcomes accurately since 2000, in general. State level dearth of election polling, and making sure study groups are unbiased as possible and match demographics of target study group, make national election correct predictions rarely more of a string-of-success phenomenon. While Biden holds leads as widely predicted, the race is close, and a president without the demeanor to lead and set an example as a non-controversial president is at play.